Turkey’s Slow-Motion Currency Crash

• It is the time of the year, when Turkey has another currency crash. It happens biannually.

• In “normal countries” currency crashes are at worst once-a-decade event, because policy-makers learn their lessons from this devastating calamity.

• In Turkey, Einstein’s definition of stupidity prevails: Doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results.

• Why slow-motion? Because Central Bank is ordered to defend the currency at the expanse of wasting all of its FX assets.

• Turkey has a rising external deficit, 70% inflation and a government which has no credibility.

• Erdogan won’t raise rates, won’t be able to find external financing and his idea of fighting inflation is prosecuting anyone who dares raise prices.

• Consequences: Currency controls, possible social unrest, recession and an end to Erdogan’s political career.

• Watch out for our next currency crash video coming in October.

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