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In this video, I discuss why it is quite likely that the SEC will continue to delay its decision on a US spot Ethereum ETF.

Not only is there a political calculation being taken by SEC chair Gary Gensler, but also ETH clearly passes the Howey Test and as such should be considered an unregistered security.

The first step on the path towards an ETF would be for Ethereum to register with the SEC as a security. This would involve disclosing many unsavory things about insider holdings, conflicts of interest, and risk factors that Ethereum does not want the market to know.

So Ethereum will remain in the worst possible position, losing market share to digital commodities like Bitcoin and also losing market share to centralized VC-coins like Solana.

As such, I expect ETH to continue to bleed out value relative to BTC.

If an ETH ETF were ever approved, it would be an amazing teachable moment on the differences between proof of stake and proof of work. Under proof of stake, an entity like BlackRock or Coinbase that owned more coins would indeed have more control over the network. This would inevitably lead to an escalation of the OFAC-imposed censorship that is already taking place on Ethereum.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

SEC delaying ETH application decisions:
https://decrypt.co/214137/sec-delays-decision-blackrock-ethereum-spot-etf-application
https://decrypt.co/213480/sec-punts-fidelty-spot-ethereum-etf-decision-to-march
https://decrypt.co/214301/sec-punts-yet-another-spot-ethereum-etf

ETH spot ETF unlikely for years:
https://www.theblock.co/post/274853/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-2025-2026-td-cowen

ETH pretends to be a commodity, but can a commodity have a leader and roadmap?
https://www.theblock.co/post/269799/vitalik-buterin-shares-updated-2024-roadmap-for-ethereum
https://www.theblock.co/post/271847/vitalik-buterin-ethereum-gas-limit-increase

SPY:
https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy

Ethereum cofounder Joe Lubin owns much of the ecosystem as well:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Lubin_(entrepreneur)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consensys
https://www.theblock.co/post/84232/ethereum-infrastructure-provider-infura-is-down
https://cointelegraph.com/news/metamask-will-start-collecting-user-ip-addresses

Ethereum validators enforcing OFAC compliance:
https://www.mevwatch.info/

Predictions of a "flippening" were wrong:
https://twitter.com/ryansadams/status/1621643990448627713

Bitcoin (there is no second best):
https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1446441633139118125

BTC/ETH meme from BTC Sessions:
https://twitter.com/BTCsessions/status/1751764347150627222

I am not being paid or otherwise compensated by any company or cryptocurrency project that I mention in my videos. My opinion is not for sale. Please do not contact me with any affiliate or advertising deals.

#Bitcoin
#Ethereum
#etf

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